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Thread: Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)


  1. #11
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    EUR/USD: is the rally over?

    Tuesday, September 18, 2012 - 09:48



    On Tuesday EUR/USD dropped back to the $1.3050 area from a new 4-month high at $1.3171, opened yesterday. The pair was pulled down by the German ZEW survey: the economic sentiment improved from -25.5 to -18.2 (consensus of -19.0), but it still remains deep in the negative territory. EMU's economic sentiment improved a lot, rising from -21.2 to -3.8 in September.
    Despite the fact that today the euro sentiment is negative, strategists at BMO Capital believe the single currency still has prospects for growth. They recommend buying EUR/USD on a pullback at $1.3025, setting a stop at $1.2925 and a target at $1.3325.









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  2. #12
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    Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)

    Key options expiring today

    Wednesday, September 19, 2012 - 08:24



    Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).
    Here are the key options expiring today:
    EUR/USD: $1.2900, $1.3000, $1.3100, $1.3120, $1.3150, $1.3260
    USD/JPY: 79.00, 78.60, 78.40, 77.90
    GBP/USD: $1.6200, $1.6100
    EUR/CHF: 1.2100
    AUD/USD: $1.0345, $1.0400-05, $1.0445, $1.0475, $1.0525, $1.0550



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  3. #13
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    Re: Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)

    Market Analytics


    BK Asset Management: trading EUR/USD

    Thursday, September 20, 2012 - 08:31



    Specialists at BK Asset Management recommend selling EUR/USD at $1.2900, setting a stop at $1.3050 and a target of $1.2700.
    According to analysts, the current risk-on move is over. They also point at the fact that Standard & Poor's declined to cut Spain's credit rating: in their view, this may leave investors feeling that the country's bailout will drag on.






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  4. #14
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    Re: Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)

    EUR/USD: short-term technical picture

    Monday, September 24, 2012 - 10:53



    EUR/USD closed last week below $1.3000, an important psychological level, after reaching $1.3172 last Monday. The near-term outlook seems negative. MACD went below the signal line on the daily chart. We don’t see any solid support close enough, so euro looks vulnerable for a decline to $1.2825 (200-day MA). On the upside, the pair needs to rise above $1.3165 to get chance to get to $1.3280.






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  5. #15
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    Re: Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)

    Scotiabank: sell EUR/GBP

    Tuesday, September 25, 2012 - 08:52



    Strategists at Scotiabank recommend going short on EUR/GBP at 0.7965 with a stop at 0.8030 and a target of 0.7800.
    In their view, the wave of high risk appetite on the back of global policy easing has already rushed by. As a result, demand is shifting to the currencies, where central banks’ policy is hawkish or neutral (AUD, CAD and NZD). British pound also looks attractive as the BoE’s easing volumes are relatively small and the regulator seems to be concerned about the financial stability.





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  6. #16
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    Re: Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)

    EUR/USD: steady decline?

    Wednesday, September 26, 2012 - 08:52



    On Wednesday EUR/USD keeps declining for a third day in a row and has already touched $1.2850. The pair has decisively broken below the yesterday’s low at $1.2885. The next downside targets are seen at $1.2825 (200-day MA), $1.2815 (September 7 maximum) and $1.2740 (38.2% Fib. retracement of the recent upward move and June maximum). A break below this last support will make the previously expected rebound to $1.3485 (2012 maximum) very unlikely.
    Specialists at Rabobank see potential for a decline to $1.2600. Analysts at Credit Suisse also believe a break below $1.2780 will pave the ground for a drop to $1.2500. However, in their view, in the near term an upward reversal is more likely. A break of the $1.2973 resistance (yesterday’s maximum) will let the euro to strengthen to $1.3048 and then to $1.3172.









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    Re: Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)

    EUR/USD: fundamental picture (update)

    Friday, September 28, 2012 - 07:57



    Spain is to release bank stress tests results today.
    There are already some leaks from the report. According to Wall Street Journal “6 Spanish banks have been found to hold sufficient capital levels, while the remaining 8 that were stress tested will need more, according to reports.” The official release is awaited later today. The results of the stress tests will determine how much Spain will draw of100-billion euro bailout provided to Spanish banks by the EU.
    Analysts at NAB claim that if Spanish banks need less that 60 billion euro, this will be positive for EUR/USD. At the same time, it’s clear that stronger advance of EUR/USD will be possible only if Spain finally applies to the ESM for bailout. As the uncertainty remains, the market players are still ready for aggressive selling. TD Securities warn that absence of the aid request means the risk sentiment may quickly deteriorate and EUR/USD could slide to the levels around $1.28.
    Resistance for EUR/USD lies at $1.2960/70, while support – at $1.2890 and $1.2825.






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  8. #18
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    Re: Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)

    EUR/USD: technical update

    Monday, October 1, 2012 - 08:06



    EUR/USD was drifting down since the second half of September. The pair has been continuously testing support of the 200-day MA at $1.2825.
    Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that the top at $1.3173 will be confirmed if EUR/USD closes below the trend line support at $1.2661. In this case, the pair will fall to $1.2475/65.
    The next support for the single currency lies at $1.2745/40 (June maximums, 38.2% retracement of advance from July lows to September highs). If euro slides to this area, it will likely jump up after the initial test of this support.
    Note that there’s bearish convergence on H4 MACD – a positive signal. For now EUR/USD jumped to $1.2870 as euro zone’s September PMI was revised a bit up and Italian unemployment turned out to be less than expected.
    Still, bearish outlook will be changed only if EUR/USD rises above $1.2900. There will be more events today which may encourage investors to sell.
    Resistance for euro lies at $1.3050, $1.3150/80 and $1.3466/1.3541 (2012 maximum, 50% retracement of the move in 2011-2012, 38.2% retracement of the move down from 2008 and the 200-week MA).








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    Re: Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)

    Moody’s: Spanish banks may need more capital

    Tuesday, October 2, 2012 - 07:39



    Moody’s Investors Service thinks that the upcoming 59.3 billion euro ($76 billion) recapitalization of Spanish banks is credit positive, but ultimately may be “insufficient.” According to the agency, Spain’s banks face a capital shortfall that could climb to 105 billion euro ($135 billion).
    “If market participants are skeptical about the stress test, negative sentiment could undercut the government’s efforts to fully restore confidence in the solvency of Spanish banks,” warned Moody’s.







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    Re: Analisa Market Forex Harian (Teknikal & Fundamental)

    Key options expiring today

    Wednesday, October 3, 2012 - 05:53



    Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).
    Here are the key options expiring today:
    EUR/USD: $1.2800, $1.2850, $1.2925, $1.3000, $1.3100;
    GBP/USD: $1.6300;
    USD/JPY: 77.40, 77.60, 78.00, 78.25;
    AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0385, $1.0400, $1.0425;
    USD/CAD: 0.9900;
    EUR/JPY: 100.25, 101.50.










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