On Tuesday GBP/USD trades above $1.6000 and close to a four-month high. Today the pair has nearly tested resistance at $1.6033 (September 7 maximum). Sterling was supported by the positive UK trade balance data (-7.1B in July; forecast: -8.9B). Commerzbank analysts remain bullish on GBP/USD until it trades above $1.5912 (August maximum). In their view, the pair is likely to be capped at $1.6081 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s decline). The next resistance lies at $1.6181 (May 10 maximum) and at $1.6300 (April maximum).
Euro and the German Constitutional court
Tuesday, September 11, 2012 - 10:01
Germany's Constitutional Court holds the fate of the euro in its hands: will the the court give a green light to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) on September 12?
The most likely scenario is that the court will ratify the ESM, but with comments, which will slow down the ESM operations.
However, according to economists at Morgan Stanley, the probability of a negative verdict is 40%.
Eur/Usd mengalami kenaikan hari ini dengan adanya pernyataan peradilan tinggi Jerman yang tidak akan mendelay keputusan hukum akan kucuran ESM besok. Sentimen QE3 di akhir September juga terus menekan dollar terhadap mata uang lain
Keterangan: CommerzbanK: Bank terbesar kedua jerman
UBS: Bank besar yg bermarkas di Swiss
Morgan Stanley: salah satu bank terbesar di AS
NAB: Our near term target for the pair is $1.2840. The German Court on Wednesday is likely to announce a positive verdict on the ESM. On Thursday the Fed will announce the QE3. Commerzbank: EUR/USD is expected to cap at $1.2834/36 (crossing of the 200-day MA and the November-September resistance line). UBS: With the expectation that the Fed will launch the QE3, we think EUR/USD is likely to trade in a $1.25-1.35 range from one to three months. However, we continue to see a stronger greenback in the longer term as the US economy recovers.
On Monday EUR/USD rallied to $1.2836 on Moody’s US rating warning. The pair managed to test the 200-day MA (currently at $1.2833) for the first time since October 2011. Then the single currency two days traded above the MA before entering a resilient bearish trend. What’s more, today EUR/USD approached the resistance of a trend line, connecting February, April and May maximums ($1.2860). As can be seen from the daily chart, the RSI indicator is above 70, what means that the pair is overbought.
From the technical point of view, it seems logical to expect a sell-off at current levels. However, we don’t have to forget about the widely-expected US QE announcement on Thursday which is to weaken the greenback.
area 1.2815/33 menjadi support untuk hari ini, pergerakan berarti akan terjadi sekitar jam 1 siang setelah memasuki market Eropa dan akan semakin intens ketika jam 3 sore nanti pengadilan tinggi Jerman memberikan keputusan tetang rencana kucuran ESM yg akan dilaksanakan ECB. Dabn hari kamis nanti FOMC akan memtusukan juga rencana QE3 yg santer dihembuskan sejak dollar melemah beberapa minggu belakangan. Fibonacci retracement di area 1.2925/45 menjadi target selanjutnya sekaligus resisten yg akan dihadapai jika pengadilan German menyetujui rencana ESM
EUR/USD opened a new four-month high at $1.2905 as Germany's Constitutional Court ratified the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the fiscal pact.
However, the court has set certain conditions. Firstly, German liability has to be limited to 190 billion euros, as agreed in the ESM treaty. Moreover, both houses (Bundestag and of Bundesrat) have to be informed and consulted on the ESM's activities. We should note that the conditions of ratification could have been much stricter.
Pengadilan German menolak ajuan pelarangan ESM, dengan demikian ESM dapat dikucurkan dengan beberapa syarat. Resisten terletak di 1.2935/55, 1.2975/95/00
Teknikal EUR/USD PIVOTAL DAILY TODAY: Support 1 1.2831 Pivot 1.2883 Resisten 1 1.2952 R2 1.3004
Fibonacci Retracement (High-Low 2012) 61.8% terletak di 1.2935/45
Fundamental Berita Ekonomi dengan Implikasi tinggi yg mengakibatkan market volatile adalah statement FOMC tentang QE 3 jam 23:30 WIB
sedangkan sebelumnya jam 19:30 adalah rilis data pengangguran USA, kalau hasilnya lebih buruk dari prediksi maka akan menguatkan sinyal pengucuran QE 3
On Thursday the market attention is compelled to US: will the Fed announce a third round of bond purchases (QE3)? According to a Bloomberg survey, two-thirds of economists expect the regulator to announce a third round of easing and to extend the duration of its low-rate policy into 2015. The question is how much the easing can really influence the market if the FOMC decision is already priced in? Ahead ov the event EUR/USD continues to move higher and has already reached a new four-month high at $1.2929. High-yielding currencies remain strong: AUD/USD trades at the $1.0470 levels, while NZD/USD – above $0.8200. Today the RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, but we’ve heard some dovish comments concerning the expensive kiwi and Chinese threat. USD/CAD has strengthened from its lowest level since August 2011 (on Monday the pair fell to $0.9712).GBP/USD trades above $1.6100. USD/JPY moves down and is very close to the 77.65 support.
On Thursday EUR/USD is moving around the $1.2920 mark with a daily maximum at $1.2930. It seems the pair has chosen this area to wait for the FOMC outcome (14:30 GMT). On the upside the single currency is limited by the 61.8% Fib. retracement of a 2012 decline. The pair remains above the 200-day MA for the third consecutive day. What’s more, yesterday EUR/USD overcame the trend line, connecting February, March and May maximums, supported by the positive German court decision on the ESM. As can be seen from the daily and the H4 chart, the pair is strongly overbought. On the H4 it is supported by the up-directed 50-, 100- and 200-period MAs.
Most analysts believe the next EUR/USD direction will be determined by the FOMC decision on the US monetary policy. According to BNZ specialists, markets have already priced in much of the QE, so the pair’s rise on the easing may be modest. No QE announcement will move the pair down. However, if there’s no immediate easing, the Fed is likely to extend the zero-bound rate policy to 2015, what will iron out the market disappointment.
Menjadi Pilihan ketika Market berjalan Normal tanpa ada News High Impact
Key options expiring today
Friday, September 14, 2012 - 08:23
Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).
Here are the key options expiring today:
EUR/USD - $1.3000, $1.2900, $1.2800, $1.2750
USD/JPY - 77.50, 77.75, 77.80, 77.90, 78.00, 78.20, 78.50
GBP/USD - $1.6060
USD/CHF - 0.9370, 0.9420
AUD/USD - $1.0550, $1.0425, $1.0400
Suatu jenis option "eksotis" yang datang menjadi ada atau tidak lagi ada sekali harga tertentu tercapai. Mereka sering ditambahkan ke pilihan "vanili" atau khas untuk membuat premi lebih murah. Misalnya, 1.4000 EUR / USD dibeli ketika spot di 1.3500 akan lebih murah jika ada "Knockout" tertanam dalam pilihan, misalnya pada 1,3300. Jika 1,3300 perdagangan sebelum berakhirnya opsi, seluruh struktur akan "tersingkir" dan penjual opsi akan mampu mengantongi seluruh premi.
Re: Menjadi Pilihan ketika Market berjalan Normal tanpa ada News High Impact
Analysts: EUR/USD prospects after QE3
Friday, September 14, 2012 - 13:33
On Friday EUR/USD opened the next 4-month high at $1.3120, pushed up by the QE3 announcement. Where will the pair go now? Rabobank: The likeliness of Spain asking for financial aid (despite the temporary relief of lower yields) continues to hover over the markets. Significant EUR/USD decline could be on the cards throughout the rest of the month. However, if Spain manages to go through the October refinancing without creating too much tension, the risk of sharp pullbacks in EUR/USD in November and December could decline. For now EUR/USD seems to be well supported, resistance seen at $1.3145. Commerzbank: After breaking above $1.2930 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) the pair targets the $1.3140/77 region. We are cautious given the extent of the recent run up, but with technical indicators still positive there is not a lot to suggest failure. UBS: Watch out the resistance at $1.3151. We expect the pair to trade at $1.3000 in a month and at $1.2500 in two months.
Re: Menjadi Pilihan ketika Market berjalan Normal tanpa ada News High Impact
Does the SNB need a peg?
Friday, September 14, 2012 - 14:42
On Wednesday the Swiss National Bank pledged to maintain the 1.20 EUR/CHF peg and kept its benchmark interest rate at zero. The regulator defends the national economy from the expensive currency by purchasing euros in unlimited quantities since September 2011. The peg is expensive for the SNB to maintain: foreign-currency reserves increased by 64% to 418 billion francs ($446 billion) during this year. How long will the floor remain and does it really help the Swiss economy?